Perth property forecast 2026 to 2031: the $1 million median and the long-term scarcity cycle

Key takeaways:

• Perth’s median house price passed $1 million in late 2025 and could rise a further 66% by 2031 if current trends hold
• Structural undersupply, population growth and a strong resource economy are expected to drive consistent growth across both houses and units
• Infill zones and middle-ring suburbs offer some of the strongest prospects for long-term capital gains

Perth is no longer the country’s affordable outlier. In the final quarter of 2025, house prices surged by nearly $100,000 to push the median past $1 million for the first time, according to Domain. That quarterly jump of 9.9% was the sharpest in 20 years, and it marks a clear transition from underperformer to national frontrunner.

For investors and buyers who still see Perth as a counter-cyclical play, the market has changed. Demand is no longer driven by timing alone. It’s now underpinned by long-term scarcity, strong migration and a housing supply pipeline that continues to fall well short of targets.

That makes the outlook to 2031 less about speculation and more about strategy. Here's what to expect from Perth over the next five years.

Part 1: price projections to 2030–2031

Perth property predictions for the next 5 years suggest that the momentum is far from over. 

Most forecasts place annual growth in the 6% to 8% range for 2026, with a projected five-year trajectory that could see house prices rise by 66% or more.

In select suburbs, gains could be even higher. Middle-ring areas like Muirhead and Calista are experiencing land constraints and increased buyer demand. Based on current supply-side limitations, values here could more than double over five years, moving closer to the $1.5 million mark by 2030.

This would bring Perth in line with long-established median prices in Melbourne and Brisbane, cementing its new role as a high-value capital city rather than an underpriced alternative.

2026 vs. 2030 projection

Part 2: the core drivers for the next 5 years

Population momentum

Western Australia’s population is growing by over 80,000 people per year, driven by strong interstate and overseas migration. Many of these arrivals are skilled workers tied to the state’s stable mining sector or seeking more affordable housing and lifestyle opportunities than those on offer in the eastern capitals.

With most of this demand concentrated in Greater Perth, and housing supply lagging years behind, the pressure on prices is expected to remain high through to the end of the decade.

The supply gap

A structurally underbuilt market is the key reason Perth’s growth is unlikely to taper off anytime soon.

WA needs more than 20,000 new dwellings per year to meet demand. In reality, construction completions have consistently fallen short, with delays, labour shortages and high input costs slowing delivery timelines. Active listings remain drastically low at around 5,000 properties, far below the 12,000 to 13,000 required for a balanced market.

Land developers are also slow to bring forward new releases, knowing that prices are rising with each stage. This ‘release delay effect’ further compounds the supply gap, particularly in outer growth corridors.

Talk to a Loan Market Bal & Associates broker today to find out more about your borrowing capacity.

Infrastructure tailwinds

Major infrastructure projects are also reshaping Perth’s growth map.

Projects like Metronet, the Ellenbrook rail extension, the Morley–Ellenbrook line and long-term plans like Westport are strengthening the appeal of outer and middle-ring suburbs. These infrastructure upgrades support both population decentralisation and higher density, which will reshape the distribution of demand across Perth.

For investors, this opens the door to early-mover advantage in suburbs that may still be overlooked. Transport nodes, employment hubs and rezoning areas will offer long-term capital growth that is tied to real shifts in liveability and accessibility.

Part 3. Where strategy matters: units and infill

As house prices rise, units are becoming a more viable and attractive investment option – particularly in areas where apartments were previously undervalued.

Perth’s unit market is tipped to outperform in 2026 and 2027. Domain and CoreLogic both note a strong uptick in buyer interest as affordability pressures mount. Forecasts suggest 7% to 10% annual growth for well-located units, especially those near transport, universities or hospitals.

Rental yields for units also remain strong, providing a buffer against higher borrowing costs. For first-time investors or rentvesters, they offer a lower entry point into a market that is quickly pricing out standalone homes.

Meanwhile, infill development is gathering momentum. Changes to zoning in suburbs like Morley, Bayswater and Beckenham are enabling triplex and quad developments on formerly single-dwelling blocks. For owner-occupiers with equity, this opens the door to small-scale development strategies that align with the state's push for higher density and smarter land use.

4. Why this time is different: long-term scarcity, not short-term hype

Perth has seen booms before. But this one is underpinned by fundamentals that are likely to persist through to 2031.

A growing population. A tight rental market. A chronic shortage of new dwellings. Strong employment in mining, engineering and health. And a pipeline of transport and economic infrastructure.

These factors are combining to reshape Perth’s position in the national market. Where it was once a high-risk, high-reward play, it is now attracting longer-term investment. That shift brings greater stability – and higher prices.

Even if quarterly growth slows in 2026, the bigger picture remains intact. Perth has moved into a structural scarcity cycle, and price gains are increasingly driven by the gap between supply and demand rather than investor speculation.

2026 vs 2030: what the numbers show

What it means for buyers and investors

Perth is no longer a waiting game. It’s a market where decisions made now could shape outcomes five years from now.

For investors, it may be time to reassess portfolio structure, equity use and borrowing capacity to take advantage of longer-term growth. For homeowners, the window for upgrading or buying in desirable suburbs is narrowing.

The good news is that your finance strategy can make a meaningful difference. Reviewing loan structures, securing pre-approval and exploring non-bank options can help unlock opportunities in a market where good properties are in short supply.

The long game

Property investment is a marathon. With Perth’s median on track to hit $1.6 million by 2031, now is the time to structure your equity for the next five years of growth. Talk to Loan Market Bal and Associates to review your borrowing capacity and position yourself for long-term success in Perth’s evolving market.

FAQs

Will Perth house prices keep rising after hitting $1 million?

Most forecasts expect continued growth, although at a slower pace than in 2025. Structural shortages and migration trends are expected to keep upward pressure on prices through to 2031.

Is it too late to invest in Perth?

No. While house prices have risen sharply, Perth remains more affordable than other major capitals. Suburbs with infrastructure investment or redevelopment potential continue to offer strong upside.

What’s driving the current boom?

A combination of record migration, construction delays, limited listings and strong rental demand. Together, these factors are pushing prices higher across both houses and units.

Should I consider buying a unit instead of a house?

Units are now seeing stronger growth due to their relative affordability. Well-located apartments near transport or employment hubs are expected to perform well over the next five years.